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Saturday, August 1, 2009

An Interesting Alternative to Stock Investments

It has been over two years since I posted on this blog, but I felt this post was worth putting up since the old traditional type of investing such as stocks, bonds, etc. has certainly shown its weakness over the past 18 months. At times I felt completely helpless to the market as I watched my portfolio tank 50%. That prompted me to begin the quest of finding a real to life cash generating machine or business that I own 100%. I think it is worth the time for anybody to follow up on the information below. The websites below were put together by the founder of LPD, LLC and grant access to information you'll want if you really want to generate a significant return on your money. See the sites below and request the information...you won't regret it.


http://www.lifepathunlimited.us
http://www.lifepathunlimited.ws

Friday, April 20, 2007

Universal Travel Group (UTVG) To Present at China Investment Forum in NYC

It has been a wild week for Universal Travel Group. It reached a new 52-week high of $3.60 a share, and has since settled down to around $2.25 a share, which is still 30% higher than it was on April 1, 2007. This appears to be the new bottom as the stock has hovered around this price the past two days with the bid ask spread between $2.23 and $2.30. At the current price it appears this stock can still be had a good price given its current growth and the fact the company is currently valued at 2006 EPS of $.08 per share. This was stated in an earlier post, but it is worth stating again; the company is forecasting earnings per share of $.19 in 2007, which at the current multiple of 28 this stock would be valued at $5.32, which is approximately a 136% increase. The company just completed its Speedy Dragon air cargo acquisition, which if you read the 8-K and financials including proforma financials for 2006 this company would have added an additional $898,674 in net income or approx. $.03 cents per share. Just that additional $.03 cents per share represents the potential for a 37% increase in share price if the company was revalued at the current multiple based on the 2006 EPS of $.08 cents plus the $03 cents from the acquisition.

This brings us to the latest positive news. The company is presenting at the China Investment Forum in NYC on April 24 at 11 a.m. This forum will be attended by portfolio managers and analysts. The company will present their business strategy and outlook, which for those of you that have read the 10-K and performed research on the company already know appears to be very bright. The reason this is important is two fold: (1) - it has the potential to increase the investment communities awareness of the company to the point that it translates into portfolio managers taking large long positions on the company, which undoubtedly would push the stock higher in the near term, and (2) - it should also create positive buzz about the company that will generate interest of main street investors, which if translates into further interested buying will push the stock higher.

This brings us to the risks and decisions that all current and near term future shareholders will face. There will no doubt be profit taking with another run up in the stock, which is hard to pass up, but it only makes sense if you think the stock will climb and then fall again much like this week. This would allow you to either take some cash off the table or invest your gains back into the stock at a lower price and increase your holdings and magnify your long-term gains. However, the risk exist that the stock will not fall back down to very attractive levels between $2.25 and $2.35 a share, and you will have limited your upside if the stock keeps climbing. Long-term this company will be a winner, because they have sound fundamentals and operate in a very high growth market, which has the 2008 Olympics and World Fair on the horizon, which should add significantly to earnings.

The company's presentation at the forum can be viewed over the web. The link below will take you the site broadcasting the webcast:

Listen to Webcast

Investor Village - UTVG Message Board

Official Press Release

Magazines.com, Inc.

Reminder: We are in no way recommending the purchase or sale of these stocks. This article is intended for education purposes only. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk; our information is designed to contribute to your understanding.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Best Buy Inc. (BBY)

On Friday April 13, 2007 Best Buy, Inc. (BBY) was upgraded by Standard and Poors from four stars (buy) to five stars (STRONG BUY). They have placed a 12-month price target on the stock of $63. The stock closed on Thursday April 12, 2007 at $46.86. What caught our attention about the upgrade was that Standard and Poors upgraded Best Buy based on the current undervaluation of the company, which they have stated is approx. 31%. When you read the Standard and Poors report and the latest 10-Q you begin to see strengths in this company that its competitors do not have. The following are highlights from the Standard and Poors report:

Investment Rationale
“We continue to have confidence in Best Buy’s ability to execute on its growth strategy. In addition to capitalizing on the strength of the current consumer electronics product cycle, we believe BBY is positioned to grow its market share through initiatives such as the Best Buy for Business, Geek Squad, and Magnolia store within-a-store offerings. Combined with BBY’s customer focus, we think these initiatives will enable BBY to continue to differentiate itself in a competitive marketplace. Trading at under 15x out FY-08 estimate, a modest discount to historical averages and peers, the shares are extremely attractive, in our view.”

“Risks to our recommendation and target price include a sharp decline in the economic climate and consumer confidence, and the risk that BBY will be unable to successfully execute its strategic objectives and meet market expectations for sales growth and profitability.”

Business Summary
… “Some 40% of Best Buy stores have been converted or opened with the customer-centric operating model, and BBY is committed to scaling BBY customer-centricity across the organization…”

… “We believe BBY has about five years of organic growth potential from its core business.”

“In FY 96 BBY’s operating margin was 1.3%, trailing the Computer and Electronics Retail Sub-industry average margin of 3.9%. In FY 06, BBY generated operating margins of 5.3%, above the sub-industry average margin of 4.7%. As a basis for further comparison, Circuit City…,BBY’s closet peer, generated an operating margin of 4.4% in FY 96, declining to 1.2% in FY 06.”

“BBY is targeting an operating margin of 7% in FY 08, a goal that we consider achievable.”

“EPS grew at a five-year CAGR of 22.1% from FY 01 FY 06…We expect BBY to generate EPS growth of 10% to 15% over the next five years.”

“For the five years ended FY 06, BBY posted a five-year CAGR in sales of 15.2%, surpassing the Computer and Electronics Retail Sub-industry average CAGR of 9.2%.

“BBY’s FY 06 return on invested capital (ROIC) was 18.7%, well above the ROIC for the Computer and Electronics Retail Sub-industry (16.7%) and the Consumer Discretionary Sector (5.3%). Driving BBY’s better relative performance were superior gross margins, a reduction in the cost of new store openings, and improved sales productivity at new stores. Going forward, we expect BBY to continue to generate ROICs that above the sub-industry and sector averages.”

Sub-Industry Outlook
“We think a healthy consumer electronics cycle, including hot products such as advanced TVs, MP3 players, and digital imaging products, will fuel sales growth in 2007. With our expectations for continued declines in average selling prices for advanced televisions, we think these products are becoming more affordable to average consumers.”

“At this point in the cycle, we see declines in average selling prices, which we think are hurting manufactures, but is helping drive demand and benefiting retail sales.”

At Smart Trades we looked at historical PE Ratios for the past 10-years and noted the following:

10-Year Average High PE Ratio 28.5
10-Year Average Low PE Ratio 11.4

The Company is currently trading at about 16.6x earnings (TTM).

Standard and Poors is projecting the following EPS numbers for 2007 and 2008:

2007 EPS Estimate $2.79

Current PE Ratio of 16.6 equals price of $46.13
10-Year Low PE Ratio equals price of $31.80
10-Year High PE Ratio equals price of $79.51
Standard and Poors PE Projection of 20 equals price of $55.80

2008 EPS Estimate $3.17

Current PE Ratio of 16.6 equals price of $52.62
10-Year Low PE Ratio equals price of $36.13
10-Year High PE Ratio equals price of $90.34
Standard and Poors PE Projection of 20 equals price of $63.40


Information on the Best Buy Customer Centricity Operating Model

Article Highlights
Centricity is also yielding financial results. The 67 segmented stores converted last year outperformed the rest of the chain, producing comp-store gains during the fourth quarter of 8.4% compared to 2.3% at other stores. And, gross profit rate was higher due to a more profitable merchandise mix, according to Anderson.

Customer Centricity - Best Buy Article

Another BBY Centricity Article

Letter to Shareholders

After studying the information in the most current 10-Q along with reading the Standard and Poors report it appears that Best Buy is currently trading at very attractive prices, when consideration is given for its financial results, which outperform every competitor, and its future growth prospects. When you read about the customer-centric operating model it appears this will yield solid returns for Best Buy.

Disclosures:
- Currently do not own shares of Best Buy
- No other relationship with the company.

Current Sentiment
Based the current research there appears to be a very strong case for rating Best Buy as a Strong Buy. We do think there are risks associated with the stock such as declines consumer confidence, especially if a prolonged downturn in the housing market leaves consumers feeling less affluent. From 2000 to 2006 the housing marked boomed and consumer confidence was very high as homeowners had access to equity for home improvements, such as high end entertainment systems. Although this risk is obviously present, it appears somewhat mitigated by the fact that Best Buy is the market leader in this segment, and should continue to see high future growth as it continues to migrate into higher end products. (Its 2007 acquisition of Pacific Sales in California was continued movement into the high end.) – The company’s most recent 10-Q details this acquisition.

Reminder: We are in no way recommending the purchase or sale of these stocks. This article is intended for education purposes only. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk; our information is designed to contribute to your understanding.


Paradysz Matera

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Universal Travel Group (UTVG.OB) - UPDATE

On April 1, 2007 Smarttrades did a report on Universal Travel Group, and its future prospects. We feel the company has huge potential and operates in a high growth sector...Chinese Domestic Travel, and with the 2008 Olympics and the World Fair coming up domestic travel in China should continue to increase. The company will be releasing Q1-07 earnings later this month, and it is expected to be positive, and if the market responds as you would expect then the company's stock should continue to climb. The stock was up nearly 16% today closing at $2.05 up from a $1.74 when Smarttrades first covered the company.

There are obviously risk factors associated with this stock as it trades for less than $5.00 and has far less liquidity than other stocks, however, as previously reported the company is in the black and expects $.19 cents per share earnings in 2007 up from $.08 cents per share in 2006.

See original in-depth analysis here...UTVG Original Analysis

We welcome all reader comments and hope that everybody can learn from each other. Please post your comments to this update.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Cambrex Issues $14 Special Cash Dividend

The Associated Press is reporting the following:

Friday April 6, 12:14 pm ET
Cambrex Issues $14 Special Cash Dividend to Shareholders, Discontinues Quarterly Dividends

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -- Cambrex Corp., which makes products and services used by life sciences companies, said Friday its board of directors approved a one-time special cash dividend of $14 per share to shareholders.

Cambrex will finance the dividend -- worth $400 million -- with a $300 million cash payment from proceeds of the sale of its bioproducts and biopharma business units and $100 million in borrowings. Cambrex said it entered into a new five-year $200 million credit facility on Friday with commercial bank group JP Morgan Chase Bank.

The dividend is payable May 3 to shareholders on record as of April 20.
Separately, the company's board said it will no longer issue quarterly dividend payments. Cambrex will now allocate cash to support its growth plans. The company last paid a regular quarterly dividend of 3 cents per share on Feb. 16.

Cambrex Yahoo Quote

Netflix, Inc.

Mr. Buffett Courts Railways

Warren Buffett is up to his old tricks again. This time he is eyeing railroads. Many wonder why would you want to invest in such an antiquated industry. Their is nothing sexy about owning railroads, when you can own the likes of Google, Yahoo, Ebay, and many other high flying tech companies. However, their is something very attractive about owning railroads that Mr. Buffett I am sure is very aware of. It is called high barriers to entry. The odds of you, me, or anybody else creating a start up railway company is Nil. Other factors according the Financial Times,

..."include...solid demand, that has done wonders for pricing, allowing the sector to earn its cost of capital and more for a change. It is far from clear, however, how long that trend can continue. Railroads already carry more than 40 per cent of US freight, well above their post-war trough and a far higher share than in other developed countries Trains are well-suited to carry bulky goods over long distances. At least in the US, that has made them a prime beneficiary of globalisation. They are also more energy-efficient than trucks. That increases their appeal when oil prices are high and should translate into further market share gains once US policymakers get more serious about climate change."

Do we dare doubt the Oracle of Omaha? His history of making contrarian investments pay off in huge returns is unmatched.

For those of you looking to diversify your holdings into other sectors you may want to do some research on this sector. Keep in mind that Mr. Buffett's strategy is long-term. Your real return would probably be produced over a 10-year period, but it may prove to be one huge return.

Yahoo Industry Research - Railroads

SunRocket, Inc.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Entering Earnings Season

The first quarter of 2007 has closed which means only one thing...Its Earnings Season. The auditors are or will be performing the SAS 100 reviews and companies will be gearing up to release first quarter numbers. That also means Mr. Market may turn to his old manic ways of over reacting to both good and bad news, which means for those of us who don't let Mr. Market dictate our decisions we may just be able to profit from his manic behavior. The website TradingMarkets.com has detailed 7 stocks you need to know for Wednesday:

Alcoa (NYSE:AA - News) beat earnings on Tuesday afternoon with $0.79 EPS over an expected $0.77 EPS. AA's PowerRating is 5.

Acergy (NasdaqGS:ACGY - News) announces earnings Wednesday before the open; watch for $0.33 EPS. ACGY's PowerRating is 5.

When Jos. A. Bank (NasdaqGS:JOSB - News) reports quarterly earnings before the bell Wednesday, look for $1.25 EPS. JOSB's PowerRating is 6.

Analysts are watching for Progressive (NYSE:PGR - News) to announce $0.46 EPS before the open on Wednesday. PGR's PowerRating is 4.

Genentech (NYSE:DNA - News), Research In Motion (NasdaqGS:RIMM - News) and Ruby

Tuesday (NYSE:RI - News) all announce earnings after the bell on Wednesday; watch for heightened price action and volume ahead of the close. DNA's PowerRating is 6, RIMM's PowerRating is 4 and RI's PowerRating is 7.

TradingMarkets has also identified the following trading ideas for today:

Bullish
5+ Consecutive Down Days: These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

LSI Logic (NYSE:LSI - News). LSI's PowerRating is 7.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:VNDA - News). VNDA's PowerRating is 8.

2-Period RSI Below 2: These are stocks that have a 2-period RSI reading below 2 and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving with a 2-period RSI reading below 2 have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

United Industrial (NYSE:UIC - News) & Life Time Fitness (NYSE:LTM - News). UIC's PowerRating is 7, and LTM's PowerRating is 6.

Stocks Down 10% or More: These are stocks that have lost 10% or more over the past five days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that have lost 10% or more over the past five days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

Radvision (NasdaqGS:RVSN - News). RVSN's PowerRating is 7.

Bearish
5+ Consecutive Up Days: These are stocks that have closed up for five or more consecutive days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that close up for five or more days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE - News). PFE's PowerRating is 4.

2-Period RSI Above 98: These are stocks that have a 2-period RSI reading above 98 and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving with a 2-period RSI reading above 98 have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH - News). MOH's PowerRating is 3.


At SmartTrades we are still bullish on Mama.Com (Mama), and Universal Travel Group (UTVG.OB). With positive results expected an investor should be able to expect nice appreciation in the stock value...barring some unforseen Mr. Market manic attack.

SunRocket, Inc.


Reminder: We are in no way recommending the purchase or sale of these stocks. This article is intended for education purposes only. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk; our information is designed to contribute to your understanding.